Census data and a new blueprint for growth

Union Democrat staff

Tuolumne County residents, Realtors and business owners have weathered some tough economic storms over the past three years. Some of the hardship is reflected in the latest release of 2010 census data.

While California grew by 10 percent - and the entire U.S. by 9.7 percent - Tuolumne County grew by just 1.6 percent over the last 10 years. After growing by 4 percent in 2000-2007, the loss of jobs in logging, timber mills, construction, government and retail and the accompanying relocation of young families - coupled with less "in-migration" of retirees from other California communities - all contributed to population declines over the past three years.

Attracting California and out-of state families to relocate to Tuolumne

County is especially critical due to our demographics. We average

roughly 450 births and 600 deaths each year. Obviously, we can grow

only by offsetting this "natural" decrease in annual population by

attracting new residents. Tuolumne County ranks sixth out of 58

California counties in terms of its aging population. The median age

for Tuolumne residents is 47.3; for Calaveras it's 49.2 (fourth highest

in the state). Statewide the median age is 35.2

We have the kind of lifestyle and amenities that have drawn

people for years - especially active retirees. Along with our favorable

climate, scenic beauty, abundant recreational opportunities and Gold

Rush history, we have excellent medical facilities, responsive

government officials, first-rate schools, wonderful churches, community

theaters and engaged, generous and caring citizens. As new retailers

open for business and existing businesses expand, Sonora is re-emerging

as a regional shopping destination. Groveland and the South County

continues to grow and develop as an attractive gateway to Yosemite

National Park.

Although some may be discouraged by the slow rate of growth,

Tuolumne County Economic Development Authority executive director Larry

Cope says: "I feel that it's too early to draw any substantial

conclusions out of the preliminary Census Data. We have to remember

that it represents only a "snapshot in time" of our community. Changes

are happening constantly."

For those people who say they are happy to see a no-growth

environment, they don't realize that stagnation leads to economic

decline, reductions in government services, fewer business start-ups

and an overall deterioration in community well-being.

No one is advocating the galloping and excessive population growth

seen in Modesto or Merced in years past. That's never going to happen

here. In a county where federal government ownership of land approaches

80 percent, where the Williamson Act protects another 10 percent of

ranchland, Tuolumne County has only an estimated 3 percent of its

acreage left available for residential or commercial development,

according to data compiled from the Tuolumne County Planning Department.

Many would hope to see a moderate growth rate of 1 percent a year

- 10 percent for a decade. This would be consistent with the Tuolumne

Tomorrow Regional Blueprint - a planning document that will help the

county prepare for its inevitable rebound and expansion. Projections

say that by 2050 Tuolumne County's population will grow by 30,000

residents - from 56,000 to 86,000.

Remember also that the latest census data reflects the on-going

rural nature and abundance of open space in both Tuolumne and Calaveras

counties - something we all want to preserve. Tuolumne has a population

of 25 persons per square mile; Calaveras has 45 per square mile. The

state average is 239 per square mile. Sacramento County is 1,471

persons per square mile. And don't even ask about Los Angeles and

Orange county numbers - they're off the charts.

We're confident that the local economy is in a recovery mode. New

hiring at SPI's Standard Mill, at Sandvik, Avalon Health Care and at

local retailers will help Tuolumne County rebound. Housing - always a

lagging indicator - will see some pent-up demand break loose soon. Gov.

Jerry Brown's revised budget, released last week, indicates that state

tax receipts were $6.6 billion higher than originally forecast. That's

good news for all of us - and especially for K-12 funding.

Job growth and business expansion in Tuolumne County - along with a

continued emphasis on economic development and tourism - will help us

grow again in population and get our local economy back on track.

11840531
The Union Democrat
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